Everybody wants to make some profit when betting odds – it’s kind of the whole point of the thing. However, the average punter will be sucked into the ‘psychology’ of the gambler, making the mistakes that bookmakers just love to see them make. Below are five which, if followed, can help you make a better profit in the long-term.
See patterns were none exist
Problem gambling’s most famous fallacy is that punters will bet on something because it hasn’t happened in a while, with roulette colours and numbers being the obvious example. However, it also applies to sports. Man City were beaten by Man Utd in the Premier League this weekend, so expect punters to stream in on them to beat Tottenham (14th April) at odds of 19/10 because City ‘can’t lose two in a row’. Similarly, if an event has not happened before it does not always mean it will not happen now. Belgium have never won the World Cup before, but that does not mean their once in a lifetime squad cannot succeed (odds of 12/1) in 2018.
Bet on ‘unquantifiable’ markets
While you should take note of the above, stats and trends are still the punter’s best friend. We can use stats on defence and attack to make informed predictions about how many goals/points there may be and when they are likely to occur, but do we really know if a player will put in an MVP performance in a given game or score a hat-trick? Bookmakers love to promote these markets because they know there are no ways to measure them and that gives punters less of an edge.
Blindly back the favourites
Sometimes it is better not to look at the odds, because they can affect the judgement of the person placing the bet. Of course, there is nothing wrong with backing the favourites if you know why they are placed at the top. However, going in there without knowing why, is a sure-fire way to make a loss. Look at Saxon Warrior, who is the 4/1 favourite for the Epsom Derby. The horse has not yet performed at the very highest level, yet he finds himself way ahead of second-favourite The Pentagon (10/1). You can almost guarantee that punters will weigh in on Saxon Warrior simply for the reason he leads the betting odds. Of course, he may win the Derby but plenty of punters will be trusting in blind luck.
Overlook betting odds promotions
There are so many online bookmakers and casinos at the moment, all jockeying to get your attention. The saturation of the market is excellent news for punters, because bookies are offering new promos all the time. However, many punters simply stick to what they know, going again and again with the same bookie. It is not always easy to find the best offers, so some sites have sprung up to collate all the promos under one roof. For example, may just be the best betting site in the UK to find free promotions, betting tips and analysis.
Bet on sports they know little about
This is the cardinal sin of the regular punter, putting money on sports where they are simply guided by the name of a team/player or the odds. The New England Patriots have been the dominant team in NFL for the last decade, but plenty of American Football fans will tell you that they are way too short at current odds of 9/2 to win Super Bowl LIII. Someone like the Cowboys (25/1) or Vikings (16/1) look to offer way more value for money. But how would you know this if you don’t follow the sport?
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